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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2026-Q1
Last updated:
Source:Eurostat (INSEE)
Status:LIVE
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of December 2025, growth momentum is softening with GDP at -0.10%. Inflation at 0.70% is below the ECB's 2% target. The ECB continues its easing cycle.
ECB (Eurosystem) has cut rates by 25 bps to 2.00%. With inflation at 0.7%, further easing may be possible if growth remains soft.
As of December 2025, growth momentum is softening with GDP at -0.10%. Inflation at 0.70% is below the ECB's 2% target. The ECB continues its easing cycle.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Billions EUR)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Data refresh in progress for: Inflation, Unemployment.
ECB (Eurosystem) has set the policy rate at 2.000%. The most recent action was a 25 basis point cut. With inflation at 0.70%, below target, there may be room for further easing.
The economy is contracting, with GDP growth at -0.10%. The labor market shows signs of weakness with unemployment at 8.20%.
The yield curve is relatively flat (0.492pp spread), suggesting cautious growth expectations. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: ECB (Deposit Facility Rate), Eurostat (INSEE)
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $3.2T | 112% | -0.5% | 16% | -5.8% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $3.1T | 110% | -0.7% | 17% | -5.5% | 4.9% |
| 2022 | $2.9T | 111% | -1.5% | 16% | -4.8% | 5.2% |
| 2021 | $2.8T | 113% | 0.4% | 21% | -6.5% | 1.6% |
| 2020 | $2.6T | 115% | -2.0% | 24% | -9.0% | 0.5% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
Data sourced from World Bank. This is a Tier B (3-sector) breakdown. Services includes all service industries (trade, finance, real estate, government, etc.). Industry includes manufacturing, mining, construction, and utilities. Agriculture includes farming, forestry, and fishing. More detailed industry breakdown may be available from INSEE (French national statistics).
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