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Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
Data as of:2025-Q3
Last updated:
Source:MOSPI (Q3 FY26)
Status:CACHED
Macro intelligence focused on rates, risk, credit conditions, labor, inflation, and bonds.
As of January 2026, growth momentum is softening with GDP at 6.20%. Inflation at 5.00% is within the RBI's 2–6% target band. The RBI is holding rates steady.
Reserve Bank of India held rates at 5.25%. With inflation at 5.0%, patience likely warranted.
As of January 2026, growth momentum is softening with GDP at 6.20%. Inflation at 5.00% is within the RBI's 2–6% target band. The RBI is holding rates steady.
Government Revenue vs. Expenditure (Trillions INR)
Variable follows prime; fixed follows bond yields + spreads. See Rate Transmission for details.
Scenario-based macro commentary, not financial advice.
Data refresh in progress for: Inflation, Unemployment.
Reserve Bank of India has set the policy rate at 5.250%. Policy is currently on hold. With inflation at 5.00%, above typical targets, rate cuts may be constrained.
The economy is growing robustly at 6.20%. The labor market shows signs of weakness with unemployment at 7.80%.
The yield curve is relatively flat (0.200pp spread), suggesting cautious growth expectations. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by longer-term yields.
Sources: RBI (Dec 2025), MOSPI (Jan 2026), MOSPI (Q3 FY26)
Data is aggregated from primary national statistical agencies. 'Regime' is a proprietary calculated metric based on growth, inflation, and policy stance indicators.
Read full methodologyBorrower fit guidance only. See Mortgage Rate Outlook for rate scenarios.
| Year | GDP | Debt/GDP | C/A | Savings | Budget | CPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ₹310T | 83% | -1.8% | 29% | -5.9% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | ₹280T | 81% | -2.1% | 30% | -6.4% | 5.7% |
| 2022 | ₹258T | 83% | -2.0% | 29% | -6.7% | 6.7% |
Annual data typically lags 1–2 years. Rows marked Forecast are IMF projections. One year changes may not reflect the underlying trend — compare across 3–5 years.
Data sourced from Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). India has a large services sector led by IT, finance, and telecommunications. Agriculture remains important for employment (40%+ of workforce). Manufacturing is growing under Make in India initiatives.